I have learned two things.

#1 what most people in the west know of China would fit in a thimble, what most people think they know would fit in a barrel.

#2 China has no desire to be a huge military power. They know that to do that is economy busting and does little to protect themselves. Their 5,000 year history is full of imperialistic games and they have learned that it does not pay in the long run. China is upgrading its military because they need to and can now afford to without robbing the people, like they did in the past. They even have planes in their active air force that date back to pre WWII.

While they have a huge military, it is really huge on paper, since every person of military age must go through a basic type training. At both colleges I have taught at, that training is done on the campus. The students go through a 2 1/2 week course that pretty much amounts to learning how to march and take orders. There is no weapons training etc. About 1% of those students later decide to take up a military career. What many in the west do not know, even though it was reported, that China made a pledge they would reduce their military by one million active duty personal two years ago and met that obligation.

Where China will excel is in the market place and monetary system. Their population believes in saving as opposed to instant gratification of spend and be in perpetual debt, like we in the west live under. Plus they have a labor pool of 800 million people that has problems of under and unemployment, thus will keep wages low for decades to come. Which of course will keep the cost of manufacturing and living down.

China’s government is very stable as well as their society. While they do have problem area’s, nevertheless, the best way of measuring a country is not by what partisans and our news media says, but the amount of foreign investment and manufacturing flowing in. China is a very safe bet for western companies and has been that way for the last 20 years. While China has controlling interest in those companies, nevertheless, even with that, investment remains very high.

Finally, Warren Buffet said 5 years ago that China’s economy would surpass the USA in 50 years. 2 years ago he revised that to 25 years. I think, with today’s economy and the fact that China’s economy is very resilient (despite what some in the west say) and has vast untapped domestic and foreign markets and massive rebuilding after the earthquakes, this country’s economy is very strong, even while the west is in recession, this one is growing by over 7%, that China will surpass the USA’s economy in 15 years.

Peace
Jim

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like the person above me, i would vote on japan , they already have the worlds second most power economy, a powerful military and are very creative. The united states and japan are great allies

Quite frankly, no. Not in the near future. China does have the man-power but not the technology. It’s service sector is despairingly small and most of it’s people live in poverty. I love China, but I think that China must also solve problems of censorship, freespeech, Tibet, etc. before it can take it’s place at the world stage. China is capable of amazing things, it has shown us this last summer during the Beijing Games.

I think that it’s much more likely that Japan will. Japan’s technology far surpasses those of the US. Japan’s people also have the drive that most Asian countries seem to possess to become stronger and better.

I think that this next century will belong to Asia.

Chinese society is mostly a peasant existance with a handful every year moving up to a middle class existence. That slow movement from a third world to a modest first world existence will no longer be possible. Without it, there is little to no reason for the average chinese citizen to identify with other people outside their local area (many of whom don’t even speak the same language, let alone hold the same values). Worse, those people become a burden on those modern chinese who are living a first world existence.

What china has NOT done is provide any infrastructure, either internally, to diversify its economy and become a first world nation on a large scale….nor globally, to become an important hub of international relations. They barely handle major problems in their own backyard (ie South Korea) and only then, with major arm twisting.

I’m sure china would love the power and prestige of being the next world super power. However, they just aren’t interested in the responsibility involved.

Also, US power and influence is growing, not crumbling. We own everything, have everything, control everything and people quibble about a slight downturn in our economy. Sheesh.

The truth is, most of the world would starve to death tomorrow if we stopped providing for them.

China is not a country that can justify to its people nor does it have a history of engaging in military action far from its shores. It wants Taiwan back, as was the terms in the surrender document signed by Japan at the end of WWII, and it wants to keep all of its provinces, including Tibet. It will not venture into other regions that were never part of its territory.

China is the oldest continuous civilization in the world, and when Europeans first went there they were awestruck and confused. Awestruck by their art, inventions and engineering. Confused by their culture, their spiritual beliefs and their traditions.

China will never become a US-style democracy, though the US needs to work on becoming a better democracy as well, but it will allow more freedom as time goes on. What will appear in China is their own form of people’s government. They already allow elections in some of their outlying provinces. These types of elections give the rural people a representation and a voice in the development of their regions. The US took over 150 years to become a full-fledged democracy. Giving African- Americans the vote in 1869, then the Native Americans and women got to vote in 1920. Finally the very people who built the transcontinental railroad in the 1800’s, the Chinese Americans, got the vote in 1940. For nearly 150 years after it was formed the US only allowed white men to vote. That was never a democracy. Give China time.

China is accumulating the wealth needed for a first class military, but again, at the expense of their citizens. If they get to the point of using their power to intimidate the West - like with Taiwan - their economy will take a nosedive and they will repeat the disintegration of the USSR. They would have to shed communism and give their people freedom and a middle class to be a true superpower. It’ll never happen without another revolution.

The reports of the demise of the USA are premature. Trust me.

I believe that in the current recession the American dollar will lose a great deal of its value. I do believe China and the United States are pretty similar in terms of superpower status…and I think we’ll lose ground within the next 20 years.

Friendly stranger - Hasn’t China had access to nuclear weapons for over 50 years ? It’s nothing new to them.